Episode 959: Mike Trout's Highest Hurdle
Date September 28, 2016 Summary Ben and Sam banter about Rich Hill, Clayton Kershaw, and Shohei Otani, then answer listener emails about Mike Trout, playoff formats, inflated homer totals, their introductions to baseball, and more. Topics * 90-win threshold for the playoffs * Mike Trout's basepath hurdle hypothetical * Unexpected high home run totals * Likelihood of making the Hall of Fame * Defining success within an organization * Ben and Sam's baseball origin stories Intro Iggy and the Stooges, "Raw Power" Outro Randy Newman, "Falling in Love" Banter * Shohei Ohtani threw a 1-hit, CGSO with 15Ks. He does not hit on the days he pitches to minimize blisters. * Clayton Kershaw changed his arm slot during a game against the Rockies, inspired by Rich Hill. * Clayton Kershaw is on pace to not throw enough innings to qualify for various pitching records. Email Questions * Matt: "What if instead of ranking teams based on the standings, every team that reached 90 wins made it to the playoffs?" The number and length of playoff rounds would be adjusted based on the number of qualifying teams so that the postseason lasts about as long as it does today. * Miles: "The league is out to finally take Mike Trout down a peg. To do so they've successfully petitioned MLB to install a hurdle exactly halfway between each base. However, they are retractable and are only deployed when Mike Trout is either at bat or on the base paths and only the hurdles that would affect him at any given time. It's only one hurdle for each base path but all four paths are affected. How much less valuable is Mike Trout with this obstacle in his way?" * Zach: "Would you guys do a short draft of your favorite home run totals for this season? Just the ones that get the biggest 'wow' reaction." * Brandon: "Congratulations, you have just been named Baseball Philosopher for a 2016 non-playoff team. You are cast with defining success for the 2017 season. What are the first three things you look at, within or without the organization?" * Brendan: "Much of the talk about Jose Fernandez's passing discussed how you can tell he was a player who absolutely loved and enjoyed playing baseball. In honor of that, what make you fall in love with baseball and what has been your favorite moment or memory from watching baseball?" Play Index * Sam revisits a past search about the likelihood of players to make the Hall of Fame based on career WAR at a certain age. * Mike Trout has 48.5 WAR. Based on past data Trout could theoretically quit playing for 10 years and still have at least a 50% chance of making the Hall of Fame. Notes * A 90-win cutoff feels arbitrary to Sam because a team's record doesn't always reflect its true talent. Rivalries would diminish, because it's no longer a zero-sum game. Pennant races would also be less fun. Ben feels the current playoff structure is doing well. Sam notes that in a very long series, when a team takes a commanding lead (say, 7 games to 2), interest will vanish. Seven games is an ideal length, because even when the series is 3-0, the next game is a clinching game. * Since Mike Trout is Mike Trout, he would practice the hurdles until he got really good at it. Sam figures Trout would lose half of his infield singles (−½ WAR) and lose 1 WAR to baserunning. Still the best player in baseball. * For their mini draft of home run totals Ben picks Mark Trumbo and Brad Miller. Sam picks Brian Dozier, Mookie Betts, Yasmani Grandal. The draft falls apart as they start just listing players with Sam excitedly saying, 'Wow!'. * Ben says that most teams believe they can win, so winning would still be the primary measure of success. Ben calls out non-victory criteria like front office and field staff working well together, player development pipeline functioning. If Sam had a rebuilding team, he would be excited with a very young closer, catcher, and shortstop that were solid. Catcher and shortstop are the hardest positions to fill, and if you don't have a closer, it will stress you out every day. * Sam says he fell in love with baseball during 1987 when the San Francisco Giants made some successful trades and he became very attached to the roster. * Ben became a fan of baseball during the New York Yankees' dynasty in the 1990s. * Sam confesses that his worst baseball moment was when his dad was filling in as manager of his youth team and put him on the mound as a kind gesture. Sam was the youngest and worst player on the team, and he gave up 12 straight hits before getting pulled. He kept looking to his dad begging to be pulled from the game, but his dad left him in to avoid looking like he was playing favorites. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 959: Mike Trout's Highest Hurdle Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes Category:Draft Episodes